# Table 15: Rolling 15-Year Window Z_1 Coefficients

| Window | DV | Z_1 coef | Z_1 SE | Z_1 p-val | R² | N |
|--------|----|---------:|-------:|----------:|---:|--:|
| 1985-1999 | 10y_rate | 81.305*** | 21.900 | 0.0003 | -0.107 | 229 |
| 1985-1999 | inflation | -66.356*** | 25.213 | 0.0090 | 0.427 | 260 |
| 1986-2000 | 10y_rate | 78.966*** | 21.642 | 0.0003 | -0.173 | 242 |
| 1986-2000 | inflation | -64.113*** | 23.982 | 0.0080 | 0.390 | 273 |
| 1987-2001 | 10y_rate | 83.453*** | 22.240 | 0.0002 | -0.172 | 256 |
| 1987-2001 | inflation | -28.258 | 22.424 | 0.2087 | 0.334 | 287 |
| 1988-2002 | 10y_rate | 83.588*** | 21.824 | 0.0002 | -0.185 | 269 |
| 1988-2002 | inflation | -13.771 | 21.689 | 0.5260 | 0.290 | 301 |
| 1989-2003 | 10y_rate | 85.972*** | 22.111 | 0.0001 | -0.175 | 280 |
| 1989-2003 | inflation | 1.167 | 20.541 | 0.9547 | 0.268 | 312 |
| 1990-2004 | 10y_rate | 82.147*** | 20.424 | 0.0001 | -0.112 | 290 |
| 1990-2004 | inflation | 13.868 | 18.649 | 0.4577 | 0.252 | 323 |
| 1991-2005 | 10y_rate | 68.439*** | 20.245 | 0.0008 | -0.023 | 299 |
| 1991-2005 | inflation | 12.351 | 17.628 | 0.4840 | 0.253 | 335 |
| 1992-2006 | 10y_rate | 47.292** | 18.281 | 0.0102 | 0.106 | 306 |
| 1992-2006 | inflation | 12.604 | 15.857 | 0.4273 | 0.228 | 345 |
| 1993-2007 | 10y_rate | 34.207** | 17.160 | 0.0471 | 0.110 | 313 |
| 1993-2007 | inflation | 16.176 | 14.661 | 0.2706 | 0.213 | 355 |
| 1994-2008 | 10y_rate | 39.024** | 16.145 | 0.0162 | 0.193 | 319 |
| 1994-2008 | inflation | 18.968 | 14.586 | 0.1943 | 0.175 | 365 |
| 1995-2009 | 10y_rate | 33.058** | 13.601 | 0.0156 | 0.174 | 325 |
| 1995-2009 | inflation | 16.198 | 13.169 | 0.2195 | 0.179 | 375 |
| 1996-2010 | 10y_rate | 34.397*** | 10.688 | 0.0014 | 0.356 | 330 |
| 1996-2010 | inflation | 13.554 | 12.383 | 0.2744 | 0.189 | 380 |
| 1997-2011 | 10y_rate | 31.159 | 19.750 | 0.1156 | 0.316 | 334 |
| 1997-2011 | inflation | 14.157 | 11.991 | 0.2385 | 0.174 | 382 |
| 1998-2012 | 10y_rate | -47.512 | 33.616 | 0.1585 | -0.288 | 337 |
| 1998-2012 | inflation | 17.900 | 11.106 | 0.1079 | 0.155 | 384 |
| 1999-2013 | 10y_rate | 30.352* | 17.411 | 0.0822 | 0.342 | 340 |
| 1999-2013 | inflation | 16.090 | 11.174 | 0.1507 | 0.107 | 386 |
| 2000-2014 | 10y_rate | 28.602 | 17.979 | 0.1126 | 0.298 | 343 |
| 2000-2014 | inflation | 19.097* | 9.980 | 0.0564 | 0.156 | 388 |
| 2001-2015 | 10y_rate | 10.908 | 19.797 | 0.5820 | 0.300 | 345 |
| 2001-2015 | inflation | 15.924 | 9.738 | 0.1028 | 0.162 | 390 |
| 2002-2016 | 10y_rate | -3.283 | 22.630 | 0.8847 | 0.205 | 345 |
| 2002-2016 | inflation | 14.940 | 9.601 | 0.1205 | 0.173 | 390 |
| 2003-2017 | 10y_rate | -14.214 | 23.432 | 0.5445 | 0.180 | 345 |
| 2003-2017 | inflation | 13.725 | 8.863 | 0.1223 | 0.181 | 390 |
| 2004-2018 | 10y_rate | -20.717 | 23.973 | 0.3881 | 0.173 | 345 |
| 2004-2018 | inflation | 7.893 | 8.433 | 0.3499 | 0.185 | 390 |
| 2005-2019 | 10y_rate | -42.073 | 26.139 | 0.1084 | 0.092 | 345 |
| 2005-2019 | inflation | 0.420 | 8.360 | 0.9600 | 0.180 | 390 |
| 2006-2020 | 10y_rate | -48.904* | 27.881 | 0.0803 | -0.035 | 345 |
| 2006-2020 | inflation | -1.520 | 8.348 | 0.8556 | 0.203 | 390 |
| 2007-2021 | 10y_rate | -41.287 | 27.475 | 0.1339 | 0.094 | 345 |
| 2007-2021 | inflation | -2.754 | 8.578 | 0.7484 | 0.161 | 390 |
| 2008-2022 | 10y_rate | -43.932 | 27.420 | 0.1101 | 0.392 | 345 |
| 2008-2022 | inflation | -46.663 | 33.304 | 0.1620 | -0.807 | 390 |
| 2009-2023 | 10y_rate | -32.941 | 27.303 | 0.2285 | 0.433 | 345 |
| 2009-2023 | inflation | -7.134 | 18.284 | 0.6966 | 0.095 | 390 |
| 2010-2024 | 10y_rate | -20.755 | 28.259 | 0.4632 | 0.437 | 322 |
| 2010-2024 | inflation | -2.395 | 19.570 | 0.9027 | 0.084 | 364 |